The pneumonia epidemic in COVID-19 may last for 2 years in the United States

According to US media reports, American epidemiologists predicted on April 30 that the COVID-19 pneumonia epidemic may continue to spread in the United States for at least 18 months to 2 years until 60%-70% of the population is infected.

According to CNN, Mike, head of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said: “This incident (epidemic) will not stop until 60%-70% of people are infected.”

According to the report, Mike has been writing articles about epidemic risks for 20 years. He wrote a report together with Mark Lipsey, an epidemiologist at Harvard School of Public Health, who is also an authority in this field. In addition, several epidemiologists and historians also participated in the writing of the report.

Lipsey told CNN that “COVID-19 pneumonia epidemic will not die out like seasonal influenza”. Although it is most similar to influenza virus strain, novel coronavirus is more susceptible to infection than influenza because of its longer incubation period, asymptomatic infection and higher basic infection number (R0).

Because novel coronavirus is a brand-new virus, and no one has immunity, experts suggest that the United States should prepare for the worst, including the second outbreak in autumn and winter this year. Mike and others predicted that even under the best circumstances, people would continue to die of COVID-19 pneumonia.

Several experts have divided the epidemic that may last for a long time in the United States into three situations: the first one: the first wave of COVID-19 pneumonia is in the spring of 2020, followed by a series of repeated smaller waves, which will run through the whole summer, then last for one to two years, and gradually decrease at some time in 2021. Second, the first pandemic of pneumonia in COVID-19 will appear in autumn or winter, and then there will be one or more small waves in 2021. The third type: a continuous wave of lower intensity.

In view of the least optimistic situation in the second case, experts suggest that American States and regions should make plans for it. They believe that what American government officials should do is to stop telling people that the epidemic is coming to an end, but to make them make long-term preparations. “Specific plans should be made, including re-establishing mitigation measures.” At present, many States in the United States have decided to cancel relevant restrictions, which surprised them.

Finally, Lipsey talked about his views on controlling the epidemic through vaccines. “Vaccines may help, but not soon. Vaccines may not be available until 2021. Besides, we don’t know what challenges will be encountered in the vaccine development process, and these challenges will delay the final timetable. “.

According to the real-time data of Johns Hopkins University, as of 20: 00 on May 1, Beijing time, the number of confirmed cases of pneumonia in COVID-19 in the United States has reached 1,070,032, and the cumulative number of deaths has exceeded 63,000.